Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics based on population-level cycle threshold values: A Machine learning and mechanistic modeling study (preprint)

Background: Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) cycle threshold (Ct) values can be used to estimate the viral burden of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and predict population-level epidemic trends. We investigated the use of machine learning (ML) and epidemic transmission modeling based on Ct value distribution for SARS-CoV-2 incidence prediction during an Omicron-predominant period. Methods: Using simulated data, we developed a ML model to predict the reproductive number based on Ct value distribution, and validated it on out-of-sample province-level data. We also developed an epidemiological model and fitted it to province-level data to accurately predict incidence. Results: Based on simulated data, the ML model predicted the reproductive number with highest performance on out-of-sample province-level data. The epidemiological model was validated on outbreak data, and fitted to province-level data, and accurately predicted incidence. Conclusions: These modeling approaches can complement traditional surveillance, especially when diagnostic testing practices change over time. The models can be tailored to different epidemiological settings and used in real time to guide public health interventions.

Optimizing SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Screening: Experience from British Columbia, Canada, Early 2021 (preprint)

Comprehensive and timely testing is required for SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VoC) screening. This study demonstrated the feasibility of a combined targeted and whole genome sequencing testing strategy for VoC prevalence assessment in British Columbia, which directly informed provincial VoC screening strategy implementation, and public health efforts.

SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses Correlate with Resolution of RNAemia But Are Short-Lived in Patients with Mild Illness (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies, particularly those preventing viral spike receptor binding domain (RBD) interaction with host angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor, could offer protective immunity, and may affect clinical outcomes of COVID-19 patients. We analyzed 625 serial plasma samples from 40 hospitalized COVID-19 patients and 170 SARS-CoV-2-infected outpatients and asymptomatic individuals. Severely ill patients developed significantly higher SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody responses than outpatients and asymptomatic individuals. The development of plasma antibodies was correlated with decreases in viral RNAemia, consistent with potential humoral immune clearance of virus. Using a novel competition ELISA, we detected antibodies blocking RBD-ACE2 interactions in 68% of inpatients and 40% of outpatients tested. Cross-reactive antibodies recognizing SARS-CoV RBD were found almost exclusively in hospitalized patients. Outpatient and asymptomatic individuals' serological responses to SARS-CoV-2 decreased within 2 months, suggesting that humoral protection may be short-lived.

Retrospective Pooled Screening for SARS-CoV-2 RNA in late 2019 (preprint)

Reports have emerged documenting earlier SARS-CoV-2 cases than previously recognized. To investigate this possibility in the Bay Area, we retrospectively tested 1,700 samples from symptomatic individuals for the last 2 months of 2019. No SARS-CoV-2 positive pools were identified, consistent with limited transmission in this population at this time.

Comparison of the Accula SARS-CoV-2 Test with a Laboratory-Developed Assay for Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Clinical Nasopharyngeal Specimens (preprint)

BackgroundSeveral point-of-care (POC) molecular tests have received emergency use authorization (EUA) from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2. The test performance characteristics of the Accula (Mesa Biotech) SARS-CoV-2 POC test need to be evaluated to inform its optimal use. ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to assess test performance of the Accula SARS-CoV-2 test. Study designThe performance of the Accula test was assessed by comparing results of 100 nasopharyngeal swab samples previously characterized by the Stanford Health Care EUA laboratory-developed test (SHC-LDT) targeting the envelope (E) gene. Assay concordance was assessed by overall percent agreement, positive percent agreement (PPA), negative percent agreement (NPA), and Cohens kappa coefficient. ResultsOverall percent agreement between the assays was 84.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 75.3 to 90.6%), PPA was 68.0% (95% CI 53.3 to 80.5%) and the kappa coefficient was 0.68 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.82). Sixteen specimens detected by the SHC-LDT were not detected by the Accula test, and showed low viral load burden with a median cycle threshold value of 37.7. NPA was 100% (95% CI 94.2 to 100%). ConclusionCompared to the SHC-LDT, the Accula SARS-CoV-2 test showed excellent negative agreement. However, positive agreement was low for samples with low viral load. The false negative rate of the Accula POC test calls for a more thorough evaluation of POC test performance characteristics in clinical settings, and for confirmatory testing in individuals with moderate to high pre-test probability of SARS-CoV-2 who test negative on Accula.

Occurrence and Timing of Subsequent SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR Positivity Among Initially Negative Patients (preprint)

Background: SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing remains the cornerstone of laboratory-based identification of patients with COVID-19. As the availability and speed of SARS-CoV-2 testing platforms improve, results are increasingly relied upon to inform critical decisions related to therapy, use of personal protective equipment, and workforce readiness. However, early reports of RT-PCR test performance have left clinicians and the public with concerns regarding the reliability of this predominant testing modality and the interpretation of negative results. In this work, two independent research teams report the frequency of discordant SARS-CoV-2 test results among initially negative, repeatedly tested patients in regions of the United States with early community transmission and access to testing. Methods: All patients at the University of Washington (UW) and Stanford Health Care undergoing initial testing by nasopharyngeal (NP) swab between March 2nd and April 7th, 2020 were included. SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR was performed targeting the N, RdRp, S, and E genes and ORF1ab, using a combination of Emergency Use Authorization laboratory-developed tests and commercial assays. Results through April 14th were extracted to allow for a complete 7-day observation period and an additional day for reporting. Results: A total of 23,126 SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests (10,583 UW, 12,543 Stanford) were performed in 20,912 eligible patients (8,977 UW, 11,935 Stanford) undergoing initial testing by NP swab; 626 initially test-negative patients were re-tested within 7 days. Among this group, repeat testing within 7 days yielded a positive result in 3.5% (4.3% UW, 2.8% Stanford) of cases, suggesting an initial false negative RT-PCR result; the majority (96.5%) of patients with an initial negative result who warranted reevaluation for any reason remained negative on all subsequent tests performed within this window. Conclusions: Two independent research teams report the similar finding that, among initially negative patients subjected to repeat SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing, the occurrence of a newly positive result within 7 days is uncommon. These observations suggest that false negative results at the time of initial presentation do occur, but potentially at a lower frequency than is currently believed. Although it is not possible to infer the clinical sensitivity of NP SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing using these data, they may be used in combination with other reports to guide the use and interpretation of this common testing modality.

High frequency of SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia and association with severe disease (preprint)

BackgroundDetection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the blood, also known as RNAemia, has been reported, but its prognostic implications are not well understood. This study aimed to determine the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in plasma and its association with the clinical severity of COVID-19. MethodsAn analytical cross-sectional study was performed in a single-center tertiary care institution in northern California and included consecutive inpatients and outpatients with COVID-19 confirmed by detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in nasopharyngeal swab specimens. The prevalence of SARS CoV-2 RNAemia and the strength of its association with clinical severity variables were examined and included the need for transfer to an intensive care unit (ICU), mechanical ventilation and 30-day all-cause mortality. ResultsPaired nasopharyngeal and plasma samples were included from 85 patients. The overall median age was 55 years, and individuals with RNAemia were older than those with undetectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA in plasma (63 vs 50 years; p=0.001). Comorbidities were frequent including obesity (37.7%), hypertension (30.6%) and diabetes mellitus (22.4%). RNAemia was detected in a total of 28/85 (32.9%) individual patients, including 22/28 (78.6%) who required hospital admission. RNAemia was detected more frequently in individuals who developed severe disease including the need for ICU transfer (32.1% vs 14.0%; p=0.05), mechanical ventilation (21.4% vs 3.5%; p=0.01) and 30-day all-cause mortality (14.3% vs 0%; p=0.01). No association was detected between RNAemia and estimated levels of viral RNA in the nasopharynx. An additional 121 plasma samples from 28 individuals with RNAemia were assessed longitudinally, and RNA was detected for a maximum duration of 10 days. ConclusionThis study demonstrated a high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia, and an association between RNAemia and clinical severity suggesting the potential utility of plasma viral testing as a prognostic indicator for COVID-19.